Montañas Pas 1–3 Cayón: Result & Stats

Montañas Pas

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Cayón

9/13/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montañas Pas31%

×Draw25%

Cayón44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montañas PasExpected goals in this matchCayón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.55

Montañas Pas

1.27

Cayón

1.55

Cayón creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

1.47

creates per match

1.40

1.71

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Montañas Pas

1.47

Cayón

1.40

allows per match

Montañas Pas

1.71

Cayón

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montañas Pas+0.00on par

Cayón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañas Pas ↓

Cayón →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Montañas Pas or draw

56%

Montañas Pas or Cayón

75%

Draw or Cayón

69%

Winning margin

Montañas Pas wins by 2+

13%

Cayón wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Montañas Pas 1+ goals

72%

Montañas Pas 2+ goals

36%

Montañas Pas 3+ goals

14%

Cayón 1+ goals

79%

Cayón 2+ goals

46%

Cayón 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)

42%

Cayón (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montañas Pas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Cayón away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.08 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montañas Pas attack 1.47 + Cayón defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cayón attack 1.40 + Montañas Pas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montañas Pas scores more

31%

level

25%

Cayón scores more

44%

Cayón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff