Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cayón vs Montañas Pas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Montañas Pas
Montañas Pas
1/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cayón79%
×Draw14%
Montañas Pas8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
2.79
Montañas Pas
0.78

Cayón creates 258% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.18
Montañas Pas
0.59

allows per match

Cayón
0.98
Montañas Pas
3.41

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Montañas Pas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Montañas Pas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
92%
Cayón or Montañas Pas
86%
Draw or Montañas Pas
21%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
58%
Montañas Pas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
94%
Cayón 2+ goals
76%
Cayón 3+ goals
52%
Montañas Pas 1+ goals
54%
Montañas Pas 2+ goals
18%
Montañas Pas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
91%
Montañas Pas (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Montañas Pas away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Montañas Pas defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.79

Montañas Pas attack 0.59 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Cayón scores more
79%
level
14%
Montañas Pas scores more
8%

Cayón at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 6–1 Montañas Pas

Cayón beat Montañas Pas 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.