Montañas Pas 2–0 Castro: Result & Stats

Montañas Pas

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Castro

2/1/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montañas Pas40%

×Draw25%

Castro35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montañas PasExpected goals in this matchCastro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.36

Montañas Pas

1.46

Castro

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

1.47

creates per match

1.02

1.71

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Montañas Pas

1.47

Castro

1.02

allows per match

Montañas Pas

1.71

Castro

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montañas Pas+0.00on par

Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañas Pas ↓

Castro →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Montañas Pas or draw

65%

Montañas Pas or Castro

75%

Draw or Castro

60%

Winning margin

Montañas Pas wins by 2+

19%

Castro wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Montañas Pas 1+ goals

77%

Montañas Pas 2+ goals

43%

Montañas Pas 3+ goals

18%

Castro 1+ goals

74%

Castro 2+ goals

39%

Castro 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)

53%

Castro (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montañas Pas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montañas Pas attack 1.47 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Castro attack 1.02 + Montañas Pas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Montañas Pas scores more

40%

level

25%

Castro scores more

35%

Montañas Pas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montañas Pas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff