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Castro vs Montañas Pas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Castro
Castro
FT
9 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Montañas Pas
Montañas Pas
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Campo Riomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Castro73%
×Draw17%
Montañas Pas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castro
2.42
Montañas Pas
0.80

Castro creates 203% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Castro
1.44
Montañas Pas
0.59

allows per match

Castro
1.01
Montañas Pas
3.41

finishing

Castro+0.00on par
Montañas Pas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Montañas Pas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Castro or draw
89%
Castro or Montañas Pas
83%
Draw or Montañas Pas
27%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+
50%
Montañas Pas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals
91%
Castro 2+ goals
69%
Castro 3+ goals
43%
Montañas Pas 1+ goals
55%
Montañas Pas 2+ goals
19%
Montañas Pas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)
87%
Montañas Pas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Montañas Pas away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Montañas Pas defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.42

Montañas Pas attack 0.59 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Castro scores more
73%
level
17%
Montañas Pas scores more
11%

Castro at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castro vs Montañas Pas

Castro beat Montañas Pas 9-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Riomar in Castro Urdiales.