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Montana vs Septemvri Sofia — First League 2026

Montana
Montana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
8/23/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Ogosta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Montana42%
×Draw27%
Septemvri Sofia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.38
Septemvri Sofia
1.17

Montana creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 73 away

creates per match

Montana
0.91
Septemvri Sofia
0.89

allows per match

Montana
1.44
Septemvri Sofia
1.85

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Montana or draw
68%
Montana or Septemvri Sofia
73%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
58%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
19%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
75%
Montana 2+ goals
40%
Montana 3+ goals
16%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
69%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
33%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
57%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 0.91 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.38

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.89 + Montana defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montana scores more
42%
level
27%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
32%

Montana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montana vs Septemvri Sofia

Montana beat Septemvri Sofia 2-0 in First League on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Ogosta Stadium in Montana.