Montana 0–2 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Septemvri Sofia

5/20/2024

Second League · Round 33Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Montana40%

×Draw27%

Septemvri Sofia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Montana

1.29

Septemvri Sofia

1.15

Montana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 60 away

1.59

creates per match

1.57

0.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Montana

1.59

Septemvri Sofia

1.57

allows per match

Montana

0.73

Septemvri Sofia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montana+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Montana or draw

67%

Montana or Septemvri Sofia

73%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

60%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

18%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

72%

Montana 2+ goals

37%

Montana 3+ goals

14%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

68%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

32%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

55%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.57 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Montana scores more

40%

level

27%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

33%

Montana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff