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Montana vs Marek — Second League 2018

Montana
Montana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marek
Marek
7/20/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Montana55%
×Draw27%
Marek18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.44
Marek
0.68

Montana creates 112% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 69 away

creates per match

Montana
1.59
Marek
0.62

allows per match

Montana
0.73
Marek
1.28

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Marek+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Marek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Montana or draw
82%
Montana or Marek
73%
Draw or Marek
45%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
28%
Marek wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
76%
Montana 2+ goals
42%
Montana 3+ goals
18%
Marek 1+ goals
49%
Marek 2+ goals
15%
Marek 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
76%
Marek (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Marek away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Marek defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Marek attack 0.62 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Montana scores more
55%
level
27%
Marek scores more
18%

Montana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Montana 0 – 0 Marek

Montana and Marek drew 0-0 in Second League on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ogosta in Montana.