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Marek vs Montana — Second League 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Montana
Montana
12/5/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Marek38%
×Draw31%
Montana32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.07
Montana
0.96

Marek creates 11% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 97 away

creates per match

Marek
1.29
Montana
1.22

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Montana
0.86

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Marek or draw
68%
Marek or Montana
69%
Draw or Montana
62%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
15%
Montana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
66%
Marek 2+ goals
29%
Marek 3+ goals
9%
Montana 1+ goals
62%
Montana 2+ goals
25%
Montana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
54%
Montana (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + Montana defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Montana attack 1.22 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Marek scores more
38%
level
31%
Montana scores more
32%

Marek at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marek vs Montana

Marek beat Montana 2-1 in Second League on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.