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Montana vs Levski Lom — Second League 2018

Montana
Montana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
8/14/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Montana70%
×Draw21%
Levski Lom10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.87
Levski Lom
0.52

Montana creates 260% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 13 away

creates per match

Montana
1.59
Levski Lom
0.31

allows per match

Montana
0.73
Levski Lom
2.15

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Montana or draw
90%
Montana or Levski Lom
79%
Draw or Levski Lom
30%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
43%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
85%
Montana 2+ goals
56%
Montana 3+ goals
29%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
41%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
10%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
88%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.87

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Montana scores more
70%
level
21%
Levski Lom scores more
10%

Montana at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montana vs Levski Lom

Montana beat Levski Lom 2-1 in Second League on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ogosta in Montana.