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Levski Lom vs Montana — Second League 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Montana
Montana
2/26/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom24%
×Draw30%
Montana46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
0.81
Montana
1.23

Montana creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 97 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
0.77
Montana
1.22

allows per match

Levski Lom
1.23
Montana
0.86

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
54%
Levski Lom or Montana
70%
Draw or Montana
76%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
8%
Montana wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
56%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
19%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
5%
Montana 1+ goals
71%
Montana 2+ goals
35%
Montana 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
35%
Montana (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + Montana defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.81

Montana attack 1.22 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Levski Lom scores more
24%
level
30%
Montana scores more
46%

Montana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Lom vs Montana

Levski Lom and Montana drew 1-1 in Second League on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.