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Montana vs Levski Krumovgrad — Second League 2018

Montana
Montana
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
11/7/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montana47%
×Draw27%
Levski Krumovgrad26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.39
Levski Krumovgrad
0.95

Montana creates 46% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

creates per match

Montana
1.59
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

allows per match

Montana
0.73
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Montana or draw
74%
Montana or Levski Krumovgrad
73%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
53%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
23%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
75%
Montana 2+ goals
40%
Montana 3+ goals
16%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
61%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
25%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
65%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montana scores more
47%
level
27%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
26%

Montana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montana vs Levski Krumovgrad

Montana beat Levski Krumovgrad 4-1 in Second League on November 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ogosta in Montana.