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Levski Krumovgrad vs Montana — Second League 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Montana
Montana
5/30/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 33Sport Complex Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad38%
×Draw30%
Montana32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
1.10
Montana
0.99

Levski Krumovgrad creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 97 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.35
Montana
1.22

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.76
Montana
0.86

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
68%
Levski Krumovgrad or Montana
70%
Draw or Montana
62%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
15%
Montana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
67%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
30%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
10%
Montana 1+ goals
63%
Montana 2+ goals
26%
Montana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
54%
Montana (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.35 + Montana defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Montana attack 1.22 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
38%
level
30%
Montana scores more
32%

Levski Krumovgrad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Krumovgrad vs Montana

Levski Krumovgrad beat Montana 2-1 in Second League on May 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sport Complex Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.