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Montana vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2026

Montana
Montana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
8/8/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Ogosta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Montana42%
×Draw26%
Botev Vratsa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.40
Botev Vratsa
1.19

Montana creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 136 away

creates per match

Montana
0.91
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

Montana
1.44
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montana or draw
68%
Montana or Botev Vratsa
74%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
58%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
20%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
75%
Montana 2+ goals
41%
Montana 3+ goals
17%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
70%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
33%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
57%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 0.91 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.40

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Montana defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montana scores more
42%
level
26%
Botev Vratsa scores more
32%

Montana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Montana 0–0 Botev Vratsa

Montana and Botev Vratsa drew 0-0 in First League on August 8, 2025.

The match was played at Ogosta Stadium in Montana.