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Botev Vratsa vs Montana — First League 2026

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montana
Montana
12/9/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Hristo Botev Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Botev Vratsa48%
×Draw28%
Montana23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.34
Montana
0.84

Botev Vratsa creates 60% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 36 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Montana
0.56

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Montana
1.64

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
77%
Botev Vratsa or Montana
72%
Draw or Montana
52%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
23%
Montana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
74%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
39%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
15%
Montana 1+ goals
57%
Montana 2+ goals
21%
Montana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
67%
Montana (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Montana away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Montana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Montana attack 0.56 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
48%
level
28%
Montana scores more
23%

Botev Vratsa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Vratsa 0–0 Montana

Botev Vratsa and Montana drew 0-0 in First League on December 9, 2025.

The match was played at Hristo Botev Stadium in Vraca.