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Montalegre vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Liga 3 2021

Montalegre
Montalegre
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
12/18/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 13Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Montalegre36%
×Draw27%
Lusitânia Lourosa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montalegre
1.21
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 46 away

creates per match

Montalegre
1.21
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.02

allows per match

Montalegre
1.43
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.20

finishing

Montalegre+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montalegre ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Montalegre or draw
63%
Montalegre or Lusitânia Lourosa
73%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
64%

Winning margin

Montalegre wins by 2+
15%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Montalegre 1+ goals
70%
Montalegre 2+ goals
34%
Montalegre 3+ goals
12%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
71%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
35%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Montalegre (draw refunded)
49%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montalegre at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montalegre attack 1.21 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Montalegre defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Montalegre scores more
36%
level
27%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
37%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montalegre vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Montalegre and Lusitânia Lourosa drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira in Montalegre.