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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Montalegre — Liga 3 2021

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Montalegre
Montalegre
8/22/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 2Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa54%
×Draw24%
Montalegre22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.75
Montalegre
1.03

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 70% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.78
Montalegre
1.18

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.89
Montalegre
1.71

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Montalegre+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Montalegre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
78%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Montalegre
76%
Draw or Montalegre
46%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
30%
Montalegre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
83%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
52%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
25%
Montalegre 1+ goals
64%
Montalegre 2+ goals
28%
Montalegre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
71%
Montalegre (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Montalegre away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.78 + Montalegre defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Montalegre attack 1.18 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
54%
level
24%
Montalegre scores more
22%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Montalegre

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Montalegre 2-1 in Liga 3 on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.