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Montalegre vs Felgueiras 1932 — Liga 3 2021

Montalegre
Montalegre
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
8/27/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 2Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Montalegre31%
×Draw26%
Felgueiras 193243%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montalegre
1.16
Felgueiras 1932
1.41

Felgueiras 1932 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 44 away

creates per match

Montalegre
1.21
Felgueiras 1932
1.39

allows per match

Montalegre
1.43
Felgueiras 1932
1.11

finishing

Montalegre+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montalegre ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montalegre or draw
57%
Montalegre or Felgueiras 1932
74%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
69%

Winning margin

Montalegre wins by 2+
13%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Montalegre 1+ goals
69%
Montalegre 2+ goals
32%
Montalegre 3+ goals
11%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
76%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
41%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Montalegre (draw refunded)
42%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montalegre at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montalegre attack 1.21 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.39 + Montalegre defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Montalegre scores more
31%
level
26%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
43%

Felgueiras 1932 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Montalegre 0–2 Felgueiras 1932

Felgueiras 1932 beat Montalegre 2-0 in Liga 3 on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira in Montalegre.