Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Felgueiras 1932 vs Montalegre — Liga 3 2021

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Montalegre
Montalegre
12/8/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 11Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Felgueiras 193252%
×Draw25%
Montalegre23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
1.59
Montalegre
0.97

Felgueiras 1932 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
1.48
Montalegre
1.18

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.77
Montalegre
1.71

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
Montalegre+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Montalegre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
77%
Felgueiras 1932 or Montalegre
75%
Draw or Montalegre
48%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
27%
Montalegre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
80%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
47%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
21%
Montalegre 1+ goals
62%
Montalegre 2+ goals
25%
Montalegre 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
69%
Montalegre (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Montalegre away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.48 + Montalegre defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Montalegre attack 1.18 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
52%
level
25%
Montalegre scores more
23%

Felgueiras 1932 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Felgueiras 1932 3–1 Montalegre

Felgueiras 1932 beat Montalegre 3-1 in Liga 3 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.