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Monori Se vs Körösladány — NB III - Southeast 2023

Monori Se
Monori Se
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Körösladány
Körösladány
9/3/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 6Balassi Bálint utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Monori Se41%
×Draw23%
Körösladány36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monori Se
1.75
Körösladány
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Monori Se
2.11
Körösladány
2.00

allows per match

Monori Se
1.27
Körösladány
1.40

finishing

Monori Se+0.00on par
Körösladány+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monori Se ↓

Körösladány →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Monori Se or draw
64%
Monori Se or Körösladány
77%
Draw or Körösladány
59%

Winning margin

Monori Se wins by 2+
21%
Körösladány wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Monori Se 1+ goals
83%
Monori Se 2+ goals
52%
Monori Se 3+ goals
25%
Körösladány 1+ goals
81%
Körösladány 2+ goals
49%
Körösladány 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Monori Se (draw refunded)
53%
Körösladány (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monori Se at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Körösladány away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monori Se attack 2.11 + Körösladány defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Körösladány attack 2.00 + Monori Se defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Monori Se scores more
41%
level
23%
Körösladány scores more
36%

Monori Se at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monori Se will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Monori Se 2–1 Körösladány

Monori Se beat Körösladány 2-1 in NB III - Southeast on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Balassi Bálint utcai stadion in Monor.