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Körösladány vs Monori Se — NB III - Southeast 2023

Körösladány
Körösladány
FT
0 – 1
Monori Se
Monori Se
3/24/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 21Körösladány Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Körösladány40%
×Draw23%
Monori Se37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Körösladány
1.64
Monori Se
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Körösladány
2.00
Monori Se
1.67

allows per match

Körösladány
1.47
Monori Se
1.27

finishing

Körösladány+0.00on par
Monori Se+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Körösladány ↓

Monori Se →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Körösladány or draw
63%
Körösladány or Monori Se
77%
Draw or Monori Se
60%

Winning margin

Körösladány wins by 2+
20%
Monori Se wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Körösladány 1+ goals
81%
Körösladány 2+ goals
49%
Körösladány 3+ goals
23%
Monori Se 1+ goals
79%
Monori Se 2+ goals
46%
Monori Se 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Körösladány (draw refunded)
52%
Monori Se (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Körösladány at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Monori Se away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Körösladány attack 2.00 + Monori Se defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Monori Se attack 1.67 + Körösladány defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Körösladány scores more
40%
level
23%
Monori Se scores more
37%

Körösladány at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Körösladány will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Körösladány 0–1 Monori Se

Monori Se beat Körösladány 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Körösladány Sporttelep in Körösladány.