Monori Se 1–1 ESMTK: Result & Stats

Monori Se

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ESMTK

9/22/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 8Balassi Bálint utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Monori Se36%

×Draw23%

ESMTK42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monori SeExpected goals in this matchESMTK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.78

Monori Se

1.63

ESMTK

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.11

creates per match

2.29

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Monori Se

2.11

ESMTK

2.29

allows per match

Monori Se

1.27

ESMTK

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monori Se+0.00on par

ESMTK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monori Se ↓

ESMTK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Monori Se or draw

58%

Monori Se or ESMTK

77%

Draw or ESMTK

64%

Winning margin

Monori Se wins by 2+

18%

ESMTK wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Monori Se 1+ goals

80%

Monori Se 2+ goals

48%

Monori Se 3+ goals

22%

ESMTK 1+ goals

83%

ESMTK 2+ goals

53%

ESMTK 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Monori Se (draw refunded)

46%

ESMTK (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monori Se at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

ESMTK away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monori Se attack 2.11 + ESMTK defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.63

ESMTK attack 2.29 + Monori Se defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monori Se scores more

36%

level

23%

ESMTK scores more

42%

ESMTK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff