ESMTK 0–0 Monori Se: Result & Stats

ESMTK

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Monori Se

7/27/2025

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 1ESMTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ESMTK52%

×Draw24%

Monori Se25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ESMTKExpected goals in this matchMonori Se

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.14

ESMTK

1.75

Monori Se

1.14

ESMTK creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.22

creates per match

1.67

0.60

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

ESMTK

2.22

Monori Se

1.67

allows per match

ESMTK

0.60

Monori Se

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ESMTK+0.00on par

Monori Se+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMTK ↓

Monori Se →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ESMTK or draw

75%

ESMTK or Monori Se

76%

Draw or Monori Se

48%

Winning margin

ESMTK wins by 2+

28%

Monori Se wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ESMTK 1+ goals

83%

ESMTK 2+ goals

52%

ESMTK 3+ goals

25%

Monori Se 1+ goals

68%

Monori Se 2+ goals

32%

Monori Se 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

ESMTK (draw refunded)

68%

Monori Se (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMTK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.60 · 45 matches

Monori Se away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMTK attack 2.22 + Monori Se defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Monori Se attack 1.67 + ESMTK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ESMTK scores more

52%

level

24%

Monori Se scores more

25%

ESMTK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff