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Moneni Pirates vs Milling Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
FT
1 – 1
Milling Hotspurs
Milling Hotspurs
6/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Moneni Pirates42%
×Draw29%
Milling Hotspurs28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moneni Pirates
1.21
Milling Hotspurs
0.93

Moneni Pirates creates 30% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 30 away

creates per match

Moneni Pirates
1.00
Milling Hotspurs
0.83

allows per match

Moneni Pirates
1.02
Milling Hotspurs
1.43

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par
Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Milling Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw
72%
Moneni Pirates or Milling Hotspurs
71%
Draw or Milling Hotspurs
58%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
19%
Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
70%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
34%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
12%
Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals
61%
Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals
24%
Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
60%
Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Milling Hotspurs away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Milling Hotspurs attack 0.83 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more
42%
level
29%
Milling Hotspurs scores more
28%

Moneni Pirates at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Moneni Pirates 1–1 Milling Hotspurs

Moneni Pirates and Milling Hotspurs drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.