Milling Hotspurs 1–0 Moneni Pirates: Result & Stats

Milling Hotspurs

FT

1 – 0

Moneni Pirates

4/10/2022

Premier League · Round 16Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Milling Hotspurs37%

×Draw27%

Moneni Pirates36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milling HotspursExpected goals in this matchMoneni Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Milling Hotspurs

1.25

Moneni Pirates

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 83 away

1.14

creates per match

1.04

1.41

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Milling Hotspurs

1.14

Moneni Pirates

1.04

allows per match

Milling Hotspurs

1.41

Moneni Pirates

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milling Hotspurs ↓

Moneni Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Milling Hotspurs or draw

64%

Milling Hotspurs or Moneni Pirates

73%

Draw or Moneni Pirates

63%

Winning margin

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+

16%

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals

71%

Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals

36%

Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals

13%

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals

71%

Moneni Pirates 2+ goals

35%

Moneni Pirates 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)

51%

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milling Hotspurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milling Hotspurs attack 1.14 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Milling Hotspurs scores more

37%

level

27%

Moneni Pirates scores more

36%

Milling Hotspurs at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Milling Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff