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Moneni Pirates vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
12/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Moneni Pirates28%
×Draw29%
Mbabane Swallows43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moneni Pirates
0.91
Mbabane Swallows
1.20

Mbabane Swallows creates 32% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Moneni Pirates
1.00
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Moneni Pirates
1.02
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw
57%
Moneni Pirates or Mbabane Swallows
71%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
72%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
10%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
60%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
23%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
6%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
70%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
34%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
40%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more
28%
level
29%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
43%

Mbabane Swallows at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moneni Pirates vs Mbabane Swallows

Moneni Pirates beat Mbabane Swallows 1-0 in Premier League on December 7, 2025.