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Mbabane Swallows vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
5/20/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Mbabane Swallows53%
×Draw26%
Moneni Pirates22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.54
Moneni Pirates
0.88

Mbabane Swallows creates 75% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
78%
Mbabane Swallows or Moneni Pirates
74%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
47%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
27%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
79%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
45%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
20%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
59%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
22%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
71%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
53%
level
26%
Moneni Pirates scores more
22%

Mbabane Swallows at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbabane Swallows vs Moneni Pirates

Mbabane Swallows and Moneni Pirates drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 20, 2026.