Moneni Pirates 1–2 Green Mamba: Result & Stats

Moneni Pirates

FT

1 – 2

Green Mamba

5/11/2025

Premier League · Round 18Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Moneni Pirates28%

×Draw29%

Green Mamba44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moneni PiratesExpected goals in this matchGreen Mamba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.25

Moneni Pirates

0.93

Green Mamba

1.25

Green Mamba creates 34% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

1.00

creates per match

1.49

1.02

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Moneni Pirates

1.00

Green Mamba

1.49

allows per match

Moneni Pirates

1.02

Green Mamba

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Green Mamba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw

56%

Moneni Pirates or Green Mamba

71%

Draw or Green Mamba

72%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+

10%

Green Mamba wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals

61%

Moneni Pirates 2+ goals

24%

Moneni Pirates 3+ goals

7%

Green Mamba 1+ goals

71%

Green Mamba 2+ goals

36%

Green Mamba 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)

39%

Green Mamba (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more

28%

level

29%

Green Mamba scores more

44%

Green Mamba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff