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Green Mamba vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Green Mamba
Green Mamba
FT
0 – 1
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
12/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Mkhuzweni Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Green Mamba46%
×Draw27%
Moneni Pirates27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Mamba
1.42
Moneni Pirates
1.01

Green Mamba creates 41% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Green Mamba
1.49
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Green Mamba
0.98
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw
73%
Green Mamba or Moneni Pirates
73%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
54%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+
23%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals
76%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
41%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
17%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
64%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
27%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)
63%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Green Mamba scores more
46%
level
27%
Moneni Pirates scores more
27%

Green Mamba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Green Mamba 0–1 Moneni Pirates

Moneni Pirates beat Green Mamba 1-0 in Premier League on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Mkhuzweni Technical Centre in Emkhuzweni.