Mondsee 0–3 Vortuna Bad Leonfelden: Result & Stats

Mondsee

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

10/25/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 13Mondseeland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Mondsee48%

×Draw22%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MondseeExpected goals in this matchVortuna Bad Leonfelden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.56

Mondsee

1.98

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.56

Mondsee creates 27% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 44 away

1.95

creates per match

1.77

1.36

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Mondsee

1.95

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.77

allows per match

Mondsee

1.36

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mondsee+0.00on par

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondsee ↓

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Mondsee or draw

69%

Mondsee or Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

78%

Draw or Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

52%

Winning margin

Mondsee wins by 2+

27%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mondsee 1+ goals

86%

Mondsee 2+ goals

59%

Mondsee 3+ goals

31%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals

79%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals

46%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mondsee (draw refunded)

61%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondsee at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondsee attack 1.95 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.77 + Mondsee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mondsee scores more

48%

level

22%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more

31%

Mondsee at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mondsee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff