Moncarapachense 4–1 Aljustrelense: Result & Stats

Moncarapachense

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aljustrelense

1/24/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 13Estádio da Torrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Moncarapachense61%

×Draw24%

Aljustrelense15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoncarapachenseExpected goals in this matchAljustrelense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.70

Moncarapachense

1.70

Aljustrelense

0.70

Moncarapachense creates 143% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

1.00

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Moncarapachense

1.00

Aljustrelense

0.40

allows per match

Moncarapachense

1.00

Aljustrelense

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moncarapachense+0.00on par

Aljustrelense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moncarapachense ↓

Aljustrelense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Moncarapachense or draw

85%

Moncarapachense or Aljustrelense

76%

Draw or Aljustrelense

39%

Winning margin

Moncarapachense wins by 2+

35%

Aljustrelense wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Moncarapachense 1+ goals

82%

Moncarapachense 2+ goals

51%

Moncarapachense 3+ goals

24%

Aljustrelense 1+ goals

50%

Aljustrelense 2+ goals

16%

Aljustrelense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Moncarapachense (draw refunded)

80%

Aljustrelense (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moncarapachense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Aljustrelense away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moncarapachense attack 1.00 + Aljustrelense defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Aljustrelense attack 0.40 + Moncarapachense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Moncarapachense scores more

61%

level

24%

Aljustrelense scores more

15%

Moncarapachense at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Moncarapachense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff