Aljustrelense 1–0 Moncarapachense: Result & Stats

Aljustrelense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Moncarapachense

10/4/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 2Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aljustrelense25%

×Draw27%

Moncarapachense49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AljustrelenseExpected goals in this matchMoncarapachense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.45

Aljustrelense

0.95

Moncarapachense

1.45

Moncarapachense creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

0.80

creates per match

1.20

1.70

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Aljustrelense

0.80

Moncarapachense

1.20

allows per match

Aljustrelense

1.70

Moncarapachense

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aljustrelense+0.00on par

Moncarapachense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aljustrelense ↓

Moncarapachense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Aljustrelense or draw

51%

Aljustrelense or Moncarapachense

73%

Draw or Moncarapachense

75%

Winning margin

Aljustrelense wins by 2+

9%

Moncarapachense wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Aljustrelense 1+ goals

61%

Aljustrelense 2+ goals

25%

Aljustrelense 3+ goals

7%

Moncarapachense 1+ goals

77%

Moncarapachense 2+ goals

42%

Moncarapachense 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aljustrelense (draw refunded)

34%

Moncarapachense (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aljustrelense at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Moncarapachense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aljustrelense attack 0.80 + Moncarapachense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Moncarapachense attack 1.20 + Aljustrelense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aljustrelense scores more

25%

level

27%

Moncarapachense scores more

49%

Moncarapachense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Moncarapachense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff