Monarcas 2–3 Puebla: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monarcas

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Puebla

R. Ruidíaz 68'

D. Valdés 37'

Á. Navarro 90+4', 85', 82'

9/25/2016

Liga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Monarcas44%

×Draw25%

Puebla31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.24

Monarcas

1.53

Puebla

1.24

Monarcas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 145 away

1.40

creates per match

1.06

1.42

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Monarcas

1.40

Puebla

1.06

allows per match

Monarcas

1.42

Puebla

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

69%

Monarcas or Puebla

75%

Draw or Puebla

56%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

22%

Puebla wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

78%

Monarcas 2+ goals

45%

Monarcas 3+ goals

20%

Puebla 1+ goals

71%

Puebla 2+ goals

35%

Puebla 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

59%

Puebla (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.66 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.40 + Puebla defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Puebla attack 1.06 + Monarcas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Monarcas scores more

44%

level

25%

Puebla scores more

31%

Monarcas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Á. Navarro

Puebla · F

9.1

Match Events

34'

35'

37'

45'

48'

60'

60'

64'

Á. Navarro← M. Alustiza

68'

R. Ruidíaz

74'

I. González← C. Penilla

74'

C. Bermúdez← D. Escudero

77'

Diego Valdés

82'

Á. Navarro

83'

J. Zárate← D. Cabrera

85'

86'

89'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasPuebla

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots12

4Corners3

15Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots12

7On Target3

4Off Target5

3Blocked4

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

557Total Passes364

497Accurate Passes304

89%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2