Monarcas 1–2 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monarcas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Monterrey

R. Ruidíaz 74'

Y. Chará 55'

Rogelio Funes Mori 22'

11/20/2016

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Monarcas38%

×Draw26%

Monterrey36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.34

Monarcas

1.37

Monterrey

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 156 away

1.47

creates per match

1.34

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Monarcas

1.47

Monterrey

1.34

allows per match

Monarcas

1.34

Monterrey

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

64%

Monarcas or Monterrey

74%

Draw or Monterrey

62%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

17%

Monterrey wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

75%

Monarcas 2+ goals

40%

Monarcas 3+ goals

16%

Monterrey 1+ goals

74%

Monterrey 2+ goals

39%

Monterrey 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

51%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.27 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.47 + Monterrey defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Monterrey attack 1.34 + Monarcas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Monarcas scores more

38%

level

26%

Monterrey scores more

36%

Monarcas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jonathan Orozco

Monterrey · G

7.7

Match Events

22'

Rogelio Funes Mori↳ C. Sánchez

34'

Rogelio Funes Mori

55'

Y. Chará

58'

C. Penilla← R. Millar

60'

Alfonso González← Y. Chará

70'

L. Rey← M. Sansores

74'

R. Ruidíaz

77'

H. Mier← C. Ortiz

80'

81'

82'

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasMonterrey

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots25

8Corners4

13Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots25

6On Target7

4Off Target12

2Blocked6

2Inside Box17

10Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

490Total Passes336

419Accurate Passes263

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Monterrey

Monterrey beat Monarcas 2-1 in Liga MX on November 20, 2016.

Goals: Rogelio Funes Mori (22'), Y. Chará (55'), R. Ruidíaz (74').

Monarcas controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 25.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon in Morelia.

Monarcas vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Monterrey