Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Monarcas vs Lobos Buap — Liga MX 2018

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
3/16/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Monarcas51%
×Draw23%
Lobos Buap26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.79
Lobos Buap
1.20

Monarcas creates 49% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.58
Lobos Buap
0.88

allows per match

Monarcas
1.52
Lobos Buap
2.00

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Lobos Buap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
74%
Monarcas or Lobos Buap
77%
Draw or Lobos Buap
49%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
28%
Lobos Buap wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
83%
Monarcas 2+ goals
53%
Monarcas 3+ goals
26%
Lobos Buap 1+ goals
70%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
34%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
67%
Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.58 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Monarcas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monarcas scores more
51%
level
23%
Lobos Buap scores more
26%

Monarcas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Lobos Buap

Monarcas and Lobos Buap drew 1-1 in Liga MX on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon in Morelia.