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Lobos Buap vs Monarcas — Liga MX 2018

Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Monarcas
Monarcas
9/30/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Universitario BUAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lobos Buap39%
×Draw25%
Monarcas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobos Buap
1.51
Monarcas
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lobos Buap
1.35
Monarcas
1.39

allows per match

Lobos Buap
1.47
Monarcas
1.67

finishing

Lobos Buap+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Buap ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lobos Buap or draw
64%
Lobos Buap or Monarcas
75%
Draw or Monarcas
61%

Winning margin

Lobos Buap wins by 2+
19%
Monarcas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lobos Buap 1+ goals
78%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
44%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
19%
Monarcas 1+ goals
76%
Monarcas 2+ goals
42%
Monarcas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
52%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Buap at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Buap attack 1.35 + Monarcas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

Monarcas attack 1.39 + Lobos Buap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lobos Buap scores more
39%
level
25%
Monarcas scores more
36%

Lobos Buap at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lobos Buap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Lobos Buap 3–1 Monarcas

Lobos Buap beat Monarcas 3-1 in Liga MX on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario BUAP in Puebla.