Monarcas 4–0 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

Monarcas

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Queretaro

J. Martínez 80'

M. Rodríguez 58'

A. Rocha 52' (pen), 44' (pen)

3/14/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Monarcas48%

×Draw24%

Club Queretaro28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.22

Monarcas

1.68

Club Queretaro

1.22

Monarcas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 137 away

1.58

creates per match

0.91

1.52

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Monarcas

1.58

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

Monarcas

1.52

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

72%

Monarcas or Club Queretaro

76%

Draw or Club Queretaro

52%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

25%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

81%

Monarcas 2+ goals

50%

Monarcas 3+ goals

24%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

70%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

34%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

63%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.58 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Monarcas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monarcas scores more

48%

level

24%

Club Queretaro scores more

28%

Monarcas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

A. Rocha

Monarcas · M

8.3

Match Events

44'

A. RochaPenalty

46'

Marcel Ruíz

46'

J. Cortizo← F. Castillo

46'

O. Arellano← J. Perlaza

49'

Julián Velázquez

52'

A. RochaPenalty

53'

Efrain Velarde

55'

Ariel Nahuelpán

56'

Gonzalo Jara

58'

M. Rodríguez↳ C. Ramírez

60'

Martín Rodríguez

62'

J. Suárez← Cadete

69'

C. Vargas← E. Velarde

75'

Julián Velázquez

75'

Julián Velázquez

76'

M. Osuna← C. Ramírez

78'

R. Meraz← M. Rodríguez

80'

J. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasClub

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots8

2Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots8

9On Target3

2Off Target3

2Blocked2

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

480Total Passes250

415Accurate Passes186

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1