Club Queretaro 3–0 Monarcas: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Monarcas

Camilo Sanvezzo 89' (pen), 77' (pen)

J. Güemez 52'

2/23/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Club Queretaro40%

×Draw26%

Monarcas34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.26

Club Queretaro

1.38

Monarcas

1.26

Club Queretaro creates 10% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 36 away

1.20

creates per match

1.36

1.16

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.20

Monarcas

1.36

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.16

Monarcas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

66%

Club Queretaro or Monarcas

74%

Draw or Monarcas

60%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

18%

Monarcas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

75%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

40%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

16%

Monarcas 1+ goals

72%

Monarcas 2+ goals

36%

Monarcas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

54%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.16 · 136 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.20 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Monarcas attack 1.36 + Club Queretaro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

40%

level

26%

Monarcas scores more

34%

Club Queretaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Camilo Sanvezzo

Club Queretaro · F

8.8

Match Events

32'

P. Yrizar← A. Del Valle

52'

J. Güemez↳ Camilo Sanvezzo

53'

Roberto Meraz

59'

C. Ramírez← G. Lezcano

65'

R. Vilchis← E. Velarde

71'

R. Millar← A. Rocha

77'

Camilo SanvezzoPenalty

80'

83'

87'

87'

89'

Camilo SanvezzoPenalty

90'

Sebastián Vegas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubMonarcas

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots9

4Corners3

19Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target3

6Off Target4

2Blocked2

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

274Total Passes426

219Accurate Passes370

80%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1