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Monarcas vs Cimarrones — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cimarrones
Cimarrones
3/1/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Monarcas47%
×Draw27%
Cimarrones27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.42
Cimarrones
1.00

Monarcas creates 42% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 97 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.50
Cimarrones
1.07

allows per match

Monarcas
0.93
Cimarrones
1.33

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Cimarrones+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Cimarrones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
73%
Monarcas or Cimarrones
73%
Draw or Cimarrones
53%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
23%
Cimarrones wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
76%
Monarcas 2+ goals
41%
Monarcas 3+ goals
17%
Cimarrones 1+ goals
63%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
26%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
64%
Cimarrones (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.93 · 112 matches

Cimarrones away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.50 + Cimarrones defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cimarrones attack 1.07 + Monarcas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Monarcas scores more
47%
level
27%
Cimarrones scores more
27%

Monarcas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Cimarrones

Cimarrones beat Monarcas 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón in Morelia.