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Cimarrones vs Monarcas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cimarrones
Cimarrones
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Monarcas
Monarcas
9/27/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Héroe de Nacozari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Cimarrones46%
×Draw27%
Monarcas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cimarrones
1.42
Monarcas
1.04

Cimarrones creates 37% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 108 away

creates per match

Cimarrones
1.43
Monarcas
1.11

allows per match

Cimarrones
0.96
Monarcas
1.41

finishing

Cimarrones+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cimarrones ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cimarrones or draw
72%
Cimarrones or Monarcas
73%
Draw or Monarcas
54%

Winning margin

Cimarrones wins by 2+
22%
Monarcas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cimarrones 1+ goals
76%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
41%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
17%
Monarcas 1+ goals
65%
Monarcas 2+ goals
28%
Monarcas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cimarrones (draw refunded)
62%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cimarrones at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 102 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cimarrones attack 1.43 + Monarcas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Monarcas attack 1.11 + Cimarrones defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cimarrones scores more
46%
level
27%
Monarcas scores more
28%

Cimarrones at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cimarrones vs Monarcas

Cimarrones beat Monarcas 3-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari in Hermosillo.