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Monarcas vs Atletico San Luis — Liga MX 2026

Monarcas
Monarcas
CANC
00:00
Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
3/21/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Monarcas45%
×Draw24%
Atletico San Luis31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.64
Atletico San Luis
1.32

Monarcas creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 123 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.54
Atletico San Luis
1.19

allows per match

Monarcas
1.46
Atletico San Luis
1.74

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Atletico San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
69%
Monarcas or Atletico San Luis
76%
Draw or Atletico San Luis
55%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
23%
Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
81%
Monarcas 2+ goals
49%
Monarcas 3+ goals
23%
Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
73%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
38%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
59%
Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.54 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + Monarcas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Monarcas scores more
45%
level
24%
Atletico San Luis scores more
31%

Monarcas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monarcas vs Atletico San Luis — Match Preview

Monarcas face Atletico San Luis on March 21, 2020 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Monarcas host Atletico San Luis at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.