Atletico San Luis 1–1 Monarcas: Result & Stats

Atletico San Luis

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Monarcas

N. Ibáñez 40'

S. Vegas 81'

8/28/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Atletico San Luis37%

×Draw25%

Monarcas37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

Atletico San Luis

1.43

Monarcas

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 40 away

1.36

creates per match

1.35

1.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.36

Monarcas

1.35

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.50

Monarcas

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

63%

Atletico San Luis or Monarcas

75%

Draw or Monarcas

63%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

18%

Monarcas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

76%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

42%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

17%

Monarcas 1+ goals

76%

Monarcas 2+ goals

42%

Monarcas 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

50%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.50 · 124 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.36 + Monarcas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Monarcas attack 1.35 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

37%

level

25%

Monarcas scores more

37%

Atletico San Luis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

É. Flores

Monarcas · M

7.6

Match Events

2'

14'

16'

40'

46'

S. Ferreira← L. Villafáñez

46'

E. Velarde← J. Martínez

53'

Jorge Sánchez

53'

Gastón Lezcano

56'

D. Escalante← Ian González

63'

G. Berterame← Ó. Macías

65'

70'

81'

89'

90'

90'

Fernando Aristeguieta

90'

Aldo Rocha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoMonarcas

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots11

6Corners2

3Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots11

5On Target6

2Off Target4

2Blocked1

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

251Total Passes423

181Accurate Passes363

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

3Fouls21

1Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards2

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Atletico San Luis vs Monarcas

Atletico San Luis and Monarcas drew 1-1 in Liga MX on August 28, 2019.

Goals: N. Ibáñez (40'), S. Vegas (81').

Monarcas controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez in San Luis Potosí.

Atletico San Luis vs Monarcas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico San Luis vs Monarcas