Monarcas 0–1 Atlas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monarcas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlas

J. Isijara 74'

7/27/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Monarcas43%

×Draw25%

Atlas32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchAtlas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Monarcas

1.50

Atlas

1.25

Monarcas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 148 away

1.44

creates per match

1.07

1.42

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Monarcas

1.44

Atlas

1.07

allows per match

Monarcas

1.42

Atlas

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Atlas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

68%

Monarcas or Atlas

75%

Draw or Atlas

57%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

21%

Atlas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

78%

Monarcas 2+ goals

44%

Monarcas 3+ goals

19%

Atlas 1+ goals

71%

Atlas 2+ goals

36%

Atlas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

58%

Atlas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 50 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.57 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.44 + Atlas defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atlas attack 1.07 + Monarcas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Monarcas scores more

43%

level

25%

Atlas scores more

32%

Monarcas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

C. Vargas

Atlas · G

8.6

Match Events

5'

11'

21'

37'

46'

A. Andrade← É. Rivera

62'

L. Reyes← E. Zaldivar

63'

C. Ramírez← L. Mendoza

69'

R. Millar← M. Osuna

72'

L. Villafáñez← É. Flores

74'

J. Isijara↳ O. Martínez

75'

Efrain Velarde

87'

D. Aguilar← J. Angulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasAtlas

Overview

52%Possession48%

21Total Shots3

5Corners3

17Fouls24

Shots

21Total Shots3

5On Target2

10Off Target0

6Blocked1

9Inside Box1

12Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

328Total Passes320

237Accurate Passes238

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls24

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1