Atlas 1–3 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Atlas

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Monarcas

J. Correa 48'

F. Aristeguieta 89'

G. Achilier 72'

J. Ortiz 36'

2/7/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlas38%

×Draw26%

Monarcas35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.27

Atlas

1.33

Monarcas

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 143 home / 49 away

1.13

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Atlas

1.13

Monarcas

1.33

allows per match

Atlas

1.20

Monarcas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

65%

Atlas or Monarcas

74%

Draw or Monarcas

62%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

17%

Monarcas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

74%

Atlas 2+ goals

38%

Atlas 3+ goals

15%

Monarcas 1+ goals

72%

Monarcas 2+ goals

36%

Monarcas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

52%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.13 + Monarcas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Monarcas attack 1.33 + Atlas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlas scores more

38%

level

26%

Monarcas scores more

35%

Atlas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Aristeguieta

Monarcas · F

8.7

Match Events

36'

J. Ortiz↳ F. Aristeguieta

38'

E. Zaldivar← L. Reyes

46'

J. Torres← M. Balda

48'

J. Correa↳ L. Acosta

71'

C. Huerta← M. Sansores

72'

G. Achilier↳ A. Rocha

76'

Luciano Acosta

77'

M. Cuero← J. Isijara

81'

L. Villafáñez← M. Rodríguez

83'

Ian Torres

87'

M. Osuna← L. Mendoza

89'

F. Aristeguieta↳ J. Valdivia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtlasMonarcas

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots17

4Corners8

16Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots17

2On Target4

4Off Target8

4Blocked5

8Inside Box13

2Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

257Total Passes373

179Accurate Passes296

70%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls15

1Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1