Monagas SC 2–0 Metropolitanos FC: Result & Stats

Monagas SC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Metropolitanos FC

8/30/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Monagas SC45%

×Draw26%

Metropolitanos FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monagas SCExpected goals in this matchMetropolitanos FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.10

Monagas SC

1.44

Metropolitanos FC

1.10

Monagas SC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 140 away

1.51

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Monagas SC

1.51

Metropolitanos FC

1.07

allows per match

Monagas SC

1.13

Metropolitanos FC

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Metropolitanos FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw

71%

Monagas SC or Metropolitanos FC

74%

Draw or Metropolitanos FC

55%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+

22%

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals

76%

Monagas SC 2+ goals

42%

Monagas SC 3+ goals

18%

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals

67%

Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals

30%

Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)

61%

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Monagas SC scores more

45%

level

26%

Metropolitanos FC scores more

29%

Monagas SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff