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Metropolitanos FC vs Monagas SC — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Monagas SC
Monagas SC
3/18/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Metropolitanos FC45%
×Draw26%
Monagas SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Monagas SC
1.14

Metropolitanos FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 134 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Monagas SC
1.17

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Monagas SC
1.49

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
71%
Metropolitanos FC or Monagas SC
74%
Draw or Monagas SC
55%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
22%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
77%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
44%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
19%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
68%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
32%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
61%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Monagas SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.49

Monagas SC attack 1.17 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
45%
level
26%
Monagas SC scores more
29%

Metropolitanos FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Monagas SC

Metropolitanos FC beat Monagas SC 1-0 in Primera División on March 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.