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Monagas SC vs Caracas FC — Primera División 2018

Monagas SC
Monagas SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
3/24/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Monagas SC38%
×Draw28%
Caracas FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas SC
1.25
Caracas FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 146 away

creates per match

Monagas SC
1.51
Caracas FC
1.22

allows per match

Monagas SC
1.13
Caracas FC
1.00

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw
66%
Monagas SC or Caracas FC
72%
Draw or Caracas FC
62%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+
17%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals
71%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
36%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
13%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
69%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
33%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)
53%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Monagas SC scores more
38%
level
28%
Caracas FC scores more
34%

Monagas SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monagas SC vs Caracas FC

Monagas SC and Caracas FC drew 1-1 in Primera División on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in Maturín.