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Caracas FC vs Monagas SC — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Monagas SC
Monagas SC
9/20/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Caracas FC48%
×Draw25%
Monagas SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.54
Monagas SC
1.09

Caracas FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 134 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
Monagas SC
1.17

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
Monagas SC
1.49

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
73%
Caracas FC or Monagas SC
75%
Draw or Monagas SC
52%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
24%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
79%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
45%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
20%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
66%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
30%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
64%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Monagas SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Monagas SC attack 1.17 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caracas FC scores more
48%
level
25%
Monagas SC scores more
27%

Caracas FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caracas FC vs Monagas SC

Monagas SC beat Caracas FC 2-1 in Primera División on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte in Caracas.