Monagas SC 0–0 Atletico Venezuela: Result & Stats

Monagas SC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Venezuela

5/27/2021

Primera División · Round 7Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Monagas SC47%

×Draw26%

Atletico Venezuela27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monagas SCExpected goals in this matchAtletico Venezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

Monagas SC

1.52

Atletico Venezuela

1.08

Monagas SC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 60 away

1.51

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Monagas SC

1.51

Atletico Venezuela

1.03

allows per match

Monagas SC

1.13

Atletico Venezuela

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw

73%

Monagas SC or Atletico Venezuela

74%

Draw or Atletico Venezuela

53%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+

24%

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals

78%

Monagas SC 2+ goals

45%

Monagas SC 3+ goals

20%

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals

66%

Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)

64%

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Monagas SC scores more

47%

level

26%

Atletico Venezuela scores more

27%

Monagas SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff