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Monagas SC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Monagas SC
Monagas SC
CANC
20:00
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
8/16/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 24Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Monagas SC47%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas SC
1.52
Atletico Venezuela
1.08

Monagas SC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 60 away

creates per match

Monagas SC
1.51
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Monagas SC
1.13
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw
73%
Monagas SC or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
53%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+
24%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals
78%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
45%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
20%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
66%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)
64%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Monagas SC scores more
47%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
27%

Monagas SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Monagas SC host Atletico Venezuela

August 16, 2020: Monagas SC take on Atletico Venezuela in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Monagas SC host Atletico Venezuela at Estadio Monumental de Maturín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.