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Monagas II vs Bolívar — Segunda División 2018

Monagas II
Monagas II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bolívar
Bolívar
6/1/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 10Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Monagas II44%
×Draw27%
Bolívar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas II
1.37
Bolívar
1.05

Monagas II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

creates per match

Monagas II
1.38
Bolívar
0.67

allows per match

Monagas II
1.43
Bolívar
1.36

finishing

Monagas II+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas II ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Monagas II or draw
71%
Monagas II or Bolívar
73%
Draw or Bolívar
56%

Winning margin

Monagas II wins by 2+
21%
Bolívar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monagas II 1+ goals
75%
Monagas II 2+ goals
40%
Monagas II 3+ goals
16%
Bolívar 1+ goals
65%
Bolívar 2+ goals
28%
Bolívar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Monagas II (draw refunded)
61%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas II attack 1.38 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Monagas II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Monagas II scores more
44%
level
27%
Bolívar scores more
29%

Monagas II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Monagas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Monagas II 3–2 Bolívar

Monagas II beat Bolívar 3-2 in Segunda División on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini in Maturín.